Santa Maria, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

300
FXUS66 KLOX 220608
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1108 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/1103 PM.

A warming trend will begin today and peak on Wednesday, with
highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The marine layer will shrink
during this time, with overnight low clouds and fog limited to
coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...21/813 PM.

***UPDATE***

A weak upper level low moved over the area today, producing some
mid to upper clouds, a deep marine layer, and cooler daytime
highs. Max temperatures today were mostly in the 70s, but with
some 80s across the interior sections. The marine layer will
shrink overnight as the upper low shifts northeastward, with low
clouds and fog expected to be much less extensive, especially
south of Point Conception. Gusty northerly winds along SW Santa
Barbara County will keep the south coast mostly clear, as well as
the Ventura Coast. For LA County low clouds will affect mainly the
coastal areas and portions of the coastal valleys, but overall
expecting much less coverage with good afternoon clearing.

Temperatures will rebound the next couple of days, likely peaking
on Wednesday with 80s to 90s nearly everywhere. This is a result
of weak ridging aloft behind today`s upper low, and surface
pressure gradients trending to weak onshore to very weakly
offshore (LAX to Daggett) with weak northerly gradients forecast
for LAX to Bakersfield. Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees and
locally to 6 degrees on Tuesday, with 8 to 12 degrees warmer on
Wednesday.

***From Previous Discussion***

Wednesday`s temps should mostly end up in the 80s across the csts
and in the 90s in the vlys. These max temps are 3 to 6 degrees
above normal except for the Central Coast where there will be
about 10 degrees over normal. There is a 20 to 25 percent chance
that the forecast is not warm enough and max temps will end up
high enough to warrant some heat advisories. Pockets of breezy
offshore winds of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated across interior
mountains and foothills.

A reversal to onshore flow will drive a modest cool down into
Thursday, although above normal temperatures may continue for one
more day.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...21/203 PM.

Broad troffing will likely cover the state later this week and
into the weekend. The GFS does favor a ridge on Sunday but the EC,
the EC-AI and many ensembles show the trof hanging on to the
coast.

The onshore gradients will be fairly week through the period and
there will be some weak offshore flow from the north during the
mornings. This and the fact the troffing is not very sharp or
dynamic will likely result in only a patchy marine layer stratus
pattern.

Max temps will cool a little on most of the days, but most temps
will remain a few degrees above normal. Blended ensemble guidance
shows 4 to 8 degrees of cooling on Sunday, but this may be over
done given the 586 fcst hgts and offshore flow from the north in
the morning.

Distant tropical cyclones may send another round of swells and
large surf and dangerous rip currents to south or southwest
facing coasts by late this weekend. We could see some increasing
mid to high clouds well ahead of these systems.

&&

.AVIATION...22/0603Z.

At 0508Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPMD & KWJF.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with VFR transition to
occur with in an hour of fcst time.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR and KVNY with a 15 percent
chc of MVFR cigs 12Z-17Z.

Fair confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 25 percent chc
of MVFR cigs 11Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Flight cat
transition`s may be off by +/- 2 hours and cig hgt by +/- 500 ft.
There is a 20 percent chc of no low clouds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for no
low clouds. Low clouds could arrive as late as 13Z. Cigs may be as
low as BKN020. Any east wind component is expected to remain less
than 6kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF with a 15 percent chc of BKN012
conds 12Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/911 PM.

Good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) west to northwest
winds increasing in the afternoon hours today into early
Wednesday, including across the nearshore Central Coast waters.
Winds are expected to decrease some Wednesday with only a 30-40%
chance for SCAs (highest across the northern-most outer waters),
then SCA northwest winds may return to the outer waters, nearshore
central coast waters, and potentially the Santa Barbara Channel
as early as late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RM/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox